History and Demographics of Myanmar

History and Demographics of MyanmarIntroductionMyanmar (Burma re representd Myanmar in 1989) has never seen sustained conflict-free periods since its license in 1948. The armed services machine has ruled the country since 1962. In 1988, pro-democracy protests were crushed. In 1990, free and fair national elections were held in Myanmar for the start snip in 30 years. The National League for Democracy, the main semipolitical movement led by Mrs Aung San Suu Kyi (1991 Nobel cessation Prize laureate), win 62% of the votes and 82% of the seats in elections.1 While the purpose of these elections was never do fully clear (either to create a Constituent Assembly or a legislative Parliament), the army machine regime ref employ to honour the result. Since and so, the senior political caterpillar trackers and the army apply remained the beneficiaries of the countrys self and externally impose isolation. The universe continues to work at a lower place political onerousness, agg ravated by sparing difficulties. Detentions, intimidation and political oppression of activists argon common place.In 2003, the force government presented a s sluice-step roadmap for constitutional and political reform towards a make grow democracy. The introductory face of this roadmap was launched in 2004, with the reconvening of the National Convention to deliberate on grassroots principles for a new Constitution. Then in December 2007, the process of drafting a Constitution, based on those basic principles, began.2 Un bid other political meetings invited, the NLD refused to take part in the process. Although these first steps might charge progress, the roadmap has come below criticism for beingness non-inclusive and lacking credibility. The sparing line stays highly snarled and potentially de-stabilising. The poor data quality and dubious governments statistics, which point to double-digit economic growth, are highly cheapjack to outside observers and attempt to ob scure the countrys dire humanitarian situation. Because of political constraints, donor assistance levels to Myanmar remain grossly insufficient to cover the needs of the general universe of discourse.In mid-August 2007, as a result of the dismal economic situation, street demonstrations were sparked over a sudden increase in fuel prices. The demonstrations grew into a nation-wide protest against the regimes policies. The Myanmar Sangha an authoritative institution in bon ton extracted overwhelming stand-in for the protests. The government responded with a violent crackdown on the imperturbable protests. This crackdown was condemned by the international confederation, which thence renewed its pressure on the regime for political reform. As a result the European Union extended their existing sanctions on Myanmar in November 2007.Thus far, European sanctions do non seem to have pushed the government in the desired direction, and they may even so have produced harmful effec ts. These include a hardened stance by the government, negative impact on Myanmar civil society and an to a lower placemining of the frugality at large. Its often said that sanctions are, in and of themselves, a form of violence, employed as a political tool used for rhetoric rather that to create meaningful change. Nevertheless, it is questionable whether Myanmars progress towards a functional democracy would be accelerated by the absence of economic sanctions.The multitude government adheres to its Roadmap to disciplined democracy, which tin best be described as a fully pictureled, slow transition to semi-civilian rule. This upshot at the pace conducive to the generals in charge, protecting their interests and largely disregarding external criticism or pressure. In the governments point of view, Western sanctions are a hostile reaction towards its declared intention for a ( retainled) transition. Since the SPDC can rely on sources of income outside the purview of sanctions (energy, commodities, etc.) it is hard to imagine that the regime impart deflect from its declared goals as a reaction to sanctions or Western pressure.While experts often argue that economic sanctions have no impact on a fooled country, this report seeks to provide evidence of sanctions applied against Myanmar that have an economic, social and the political impact. For supporting this thesis the focus lead be on the restrictive measures compel by the European Union. It reviews the European Unions existing policies supporting Myanmar to become a peaceful, democratic and prosperous country. Moreover, it allow show that it is not enough to wait for a political break through with(predicate). Evidence suggests all sides, including the international conjunction should have the courage to move away from these entrenched positions and try a different approach. afterward having given up the necessary background and having shown why restrictive measures are applied by western commun ities, this report will provide recommendations for a different approach towards democracy in Myanmar.1. BackgroundIn June 1989, the ruling forces junta changed its name from Union of Burma to Myanmar, one year after the brutally suppressing of pro-democracy protests, where thousands were killed. The military machine junta claimed this name would be more neutral for a state of a huge heathen diversity. Thus it would lead to abundanter harmony among the countrys desperate people and provide them a feeling of release from their British compound past. The capitals name was also changed from Rangoon to Yangon.3 The new name was accepted by most countries, including the United Nations, as a privilege of the Burmese government in power, but was not accepted by the United States.4 two terms are commonly used, with roughly people referring to the country as Burma and others referring to it as Myanmar. The very(prenominal) is also true for Rangoon most people are more familiar with t his name than Yangon.Myanmar is the largest country in southeastward Asia and in many ways a country defined by its geography, isolated and yet with a wealth of opportunities to work with its neighbouring countries. The country borders China, India, Bangladesh, Laos and Thailand. Much of the country is the valley of the Irrawaddy River, which runs north to south, from the icy eastern stoop of the Himalayas down over a thousand miles to the brackish tidal waters of the Andaman Sea.5To better understand new Myanmar and the reasons behind its voluntary isolation, their needs to be a greater focus on historical context. The essential complexity of the final results involved is easier to understand if the various historical forces are analysed separately. The different strands of history, described below, will eventually come together and shape the present and show that current issues which today concern the state are mainly rooted in the countrys complex and often dubious institu tions and history. Indeed, it can be argued that the countrys current situation is a result of often considerably-meaning but definitely foolhardy attempts to apply popular political measures to a fragile system of social imperative. Nationalism, socialism, and autarky, as well as federalism, autonomy and substitutionisation, are systems that have been used by political rulers in post- compound Myanmar.61.1 Colonial bygoneMyanmar was relatively distinct, coherent, and autonomous for almost 1,000 years before the British annexed the country in the 19th pennyury.7 The first Burmese empire was founded in the 11th pennyury. Many communities which lived in remote places were rarely brought under rudimentary domination, but remained relatively distinct from each other in matters much(prenominal) as language, culture, patterns of production, and political traditions.8 Burman kings create glorious capitals like Pagan and Mandalay and ruled over a rich and thriving civilisation. More over, they benefited from an increasing population and revenues, providing significant military and economic advantages over neighbouring polities. Several wars in the eighteenth century led to territorial expansion, which further strengthened the Burmese state and created a distinctive Burmese cultural identity. At the same time, the growth of external trade, both with China and the western world provided further revenues.But the era of Burman kingdoms could not cash in ones chips forever and ended in 1885 when the British deposed the last King Thibaw in Mandalay and made Burma a province of British India. With the invasion of the British, new powerful political concepts and models for later leaders were introduced.9 The British annexed Burma in 1886 and divided the country into two main administrative areas Ministerial Burma, which was mainly populated by the Burman studyity, and the limit area.10The British wanted to establish police force and order through a low cost centra l administration. They secured their economic interest by rationalisation and commercialisation of agriculture. The British occupation did provide certain stability, by unifying various indigenous heathen groups under colonial rule. Nevertheless, the British colonial system importantly changed and damaged the Burmese social structure.The precolonial social organisation largely rested on the authority of topical anaesthetic chieftains and Buddhists monks. Buddhism as the common faith shared among the Burman majority, the Arakanese and most Shan and Karen people, was the main source of social stability as this faith emphasises self-reliance and righteous behaviour. Moreover, education was offered by monks to all.11With the British occupation, authority of local chieftains was replaced by languid influence of salaried officials, who were more responsible to local government rather than to the local communities.12The influence of the monks was mown and they were soon deprived of the ir main social function. In order to protect the interests of minorities, the British assigned them some key functions which the Burmans, the dominant ethnic group, could not participate. For example, the British mainly recruited Karens, Kachins and Chins in the colonial army and administration, whereas the Burman were kept out of such activities. According to Josef Silverstein, nonage groups living on the frontiers were administered directly by the central British administration. They were separated from the rest of the country, and those living in Ministerial Burma were granted seats in the legislature.13 Thus, ethnic minority groups were divided along occupational lines.14 Moreover, the British displaced indigenous and non-indigenous to the South in the fertile delta region. Deprived of their groupal social structure, those newly established cultivators fully adopted the imported rule of law, tenancy rights and money bestow practices. These British policies made the Burmese p eople conscious of their ethnic and cultural differences for the first time. This led to social division that had not existed in the pre-colonial period.15With the British annexation of Burma the structures of foreign trade changed, as well. The Burmese economy under the informal empire had become dangerously dependent on the export of view firsthand commodities -cotton and teak in particular. At the same time, rice was being imported in ever large quantities, and soon Burma became the worlds largest rice exporter. However, as a consequence, an exodus of landless farmers in 1930 led to competition amid ethnic groups and violent intra-communal riots.The world depressions of the 1870s led to a dramatic decline in the relative prices of almost all primary commodities, including all of Burmas main exports. But nevertheless, international rice prices stayed the same or even rose. Thus, at this time of attempted reform, in contrast to Siam (Thailand) which enjoyed the profits of growi ng international trade, Burma was plunged into increasing economic hardship and fiscal collapse.16Efforts to promote economic development failed as the state lost its autonomy to colonial powers and the economy became more fully integrated into global markets. Local reactions to European expansion lead to crisis and intervention. The affliction of British rule in Burma, instability and state insolvency were caused largely due to underpayment by Western countries for goods and services. The inception and fall of cotton prices and, more generally, dependence on western markets, weakened the Burmese government, desperate to run into the funds with which to finance reform.17 This demonstrates that these conditions created an opportunity for Western nations to dominate the country, eventually leading to British colonial rule. avocation(a) the British withdrawal, the Japanese occupied Burma in summer 1942. But throughout their four years of control over Burma during the Pacific war, t he Japanese did not succeed in bringing the Burmese population under their rule, nor could they manage to lessen the external menace of allied forces. To secure their position they promised to bring independence to Burma and support an indigenous army. By not following through on their promises, the Japanese precipitated the emergence Burmese nationalists, who attendantly allied with the British. In March 1945, the Anti-Fascist Peoples Freedom League was formed.Aung San, Chief of this Burmese army, became the head of the Anti-Fascist Peoples Freedom League. The AFPFL was first a resistance movement founded on Buddhist philosophy and open to all Burmese ir obligingnessive their ethnic background, their political or religious beliefs. It later became a leading political companionship commerce for national unity and federalism. During this transitional period to democracy, a Burmese government was created to report administrative matters.18After the Japanese occupation ended in Aug ust 1945, the Burmese feared a regression to the British colonial economic order. Strikes and negotiations led in January 1947 to a meeting in London. There it was decided that a luck assembly should be elected in April, and those living in Frontier Areas would have to decide whether or not to join Ministerial Burma. In a second meeting in Panlong on the twelfth February 1947, the Chin, Kachin and Shan agreed to join the prox federal union as autonomous communities. However, the Karen, Karenni, Rakhine (or Arakanese) and the Mon did not sign the Panglong agreement, which ill challenged its credibility. To this day, dialogue between the Burman majority and ethnic minority groups is a rare and difficult proposition.As expected, the AFPFL won the elections, and Aung San was put in charge of writing the constitution, which espoused unity in diversity that could only be achieved by a federal system. His assassination in July 1947, as well as the deaths of other officials, left Burma w ithout the agency to pursue the democratisation process. And so, the declaration of Burmas independence from the Commonwealth on the 4th January 1948 did not prevent the look forward to of national unity to fall apart. After the Japanese occupation during World War II, the country gained independence from the British in 1948.191.2 Myanmar and its Ethnic DiversityWith its estimated population of 50 million, Burma is one of the most ethnically diverse countries in the world. Due its central location, settlers from many different backgrounds have migrated to Burma. Today about two thirds of the population is Burman (Bamar) and the remaining one-thirds are ethnic minorities. This ethnically diversity is more than ever a critical issue and thus the ground of most of the countrys problems.Largely due to the item that throughout history, Burma has experienced a great deal of inter-ethnic mingling.20Discussions about ethnicity are related to terms, such as nationalities and national race s, referring back to the course which was introduced into Myanmar during the colonial era and became concretised with the countrys independence in 1948 when various constitutional models for multi-ethnic states were being discussed. The examples of Yugoslavia, Stalinist Russia, and the United landed estate were considered as alternatives for Myanmar. It started in the 1930s when ideas of socialist and Marxist concepts had been introduced into Myanmar which took power in 1948 as the essence of the recap of British imperialism and colonial rule. The disproportionate wealth that European and Asian foreigners had gained during the colonial period, creating a situation where the Burmese were poor people in their own rich land, meant that the removal of alien economic domination became a key goal of nationalist policy.21The 1974 constitution, which is now being revised, divided Burma into seven ethnic states- the Rakhine, Shan, Mon, Chin, Kayin, Kayah (formerly Karenni) and Kachin and seven divisions, where ethnic Burman people held the majority.22 Furthermore, the military junta distinguishes 135 sub-ethnic groups among the seven major ones. According to Analysist and social scientists the s can be distributed as following Bamah 65%, Karen 9%, Shan 7% , Chin 2%, venialer groups like the Mon, Kachin and Wa at 1% each, and Indian 7% at least.23Due this huge ethnic diversity, locked into this small geographic zone, over hundreds of different dialects and languages have been identified. Most of the people would not be aware of such classification, if the countries military junta would not use this nomenclature for discriminative purposes. Ethnic minority groups are not excluded in cities populated by Burmans, but with the juntas assimilation into the Burmese Buddhist system, called Burmanization, they are faced stern discriminations, such as the deny of social, cultural and religious rights of ethnic minorities.24Moreover, with its xenophobia and oppressions again st minorities, the military rule is responsible for the overshadow of huge parts of the peoples history. Minorities culturally and racially different from the dominating Burmans have been uprooted from their localities under the pretext of being Kula, non- natives, or even outright foreigners. In a multiethnic country like Myanmar, instead of following the democratic policy of unity and diversity, the military junta uses Burmanization as a guide and prosecutes the minorities, renames places, destroys minority places and replaces them with their ethnic names. The discrimination of minorities is rein obligate by religious consideration, especially Christians, Hindus and above all Muslims communities are often target of many human rights abuses.Christianity is often associated with the Chin, Kachin and Karen, Hinduism with Indians, and the Islam, accounting for about 13% of the population, is mainly represented in Arakanese, Indian and Pakistanis communities. They often have no access to certain jobs, mainly in administration and in the army. Those who live in the remote zones are subjected to atrocities committed by unleashed military groups. The juntas propaganda portrayed ethnic minorities as derange makers, and ordinary Burmans, besides the Tatmadaw, progressively share this view. Most popular targets of discrimination are the Royhingas, who are Muslims in religion and live in the Mon-State, bordering to Bangladesh.25One party, one blood, one voice and one command was already the slogan of the Dobama movement, a motto which unflurried lives on in the Burmese armed forces, the Tatmadaw.26 Nevertheless, given the fact that Burma is struggling with ethnically and political problems it may be impossible to build unity with such a slogan, especially when 40% of the population is not seen as part of the Burmese society.1.3 Post Colonial termThe country has been ruled by military totalitarianism since 1962, when General Ne Win seized power from the charge Mini ster U Nu. Only between 1974 and 1988 there is the exception of a period of one party rule. Ne Win introduced the Burmese Way to Socialism, which systematically referred to the decent of a country which had a 90 percent literacy rate and was rich in internal resources. Together with its regime, he dismantled the free-living judiciary, the legislature, the multiparty system and finally cut Burma off from the outside world. This regime has been engaged in military operations against the Communist Party of Burma and various ethnic minorities fighting for autonomy or independence from the central government, which has traditionally been dominated by ethnic Burmans.27The current executive body, the State Peace and increase Council is a group of a dozen high-ranking soldiers. On state and division level, military regional Commanders enjoy a limited autonomy granted by the regime. On township and village level, local Peace and Development Councils exist. In the cease-fire areas, ethnic leaders determine and implement policies, depending on the degree of their autonomy vis--vis the regional Commanders and SPDC. Although the system of government seems centralised, from the outside world, in reality, it is highly fragmented, with opaque decision making procedures and means of governance.28The military is entrenched in every instant and institution of the state, including the Union Presidency, the Union Government, the Union Assembly and the Regional or State Assemblies. The constitution is fleshed out with repetitions and irrelevant provisions. In many respects the constitution is bleak and conf employ and open to conflicting interpretations. The military is above the constitution and above the law. The Chief of staff of the disaffirmation Forces is the most powerful person under the constitution. His appointment and removal are not referred to the constitution. It is anticipated that he will be beyond the control of a civilian government. The Chief of staff of the Defence Forces and the military are regulated by the militarys own regulations, which enables them to override the constitution and serves as a justification for the military regime to stay in power. The President appoints the Chief Minister for each state and region. A partially elected Legislative Assembly is also established in each state and region.29The military regime, then under the name of State Law and Order Restoration Council, seized power in 1988. In August, widespread popular riots against the military regime, which were initiated by university students in Rangoon, were brutally suppressed and thousands were killed. People took to the streets and demanded an end to decades of military dictatorship and international isolation. The protests have been rumbling on for months, starting with students at the select Rangoon Institute for Technology, spreading through the sprawling capital and then upcountry. The price of food skyrocketed, and a mood of opportunity and imminen t fervour fused with long-pent-up anger and resentment against the authorities. In 1990 the SLORC held elections for a multiparty parliament. The NLD as the main political movement under the leadership of Mrs Aung San Suu Kyi won 82% of the seats in the National Assembly. However, the results of the elections were never recognised by the military regime which maintained power. The military refused to step down and since then have kept tight control of the country. Aung San Suu Kyi has been under house arrest most of the time and only the leadership and the army have benefited from self-imposed and external isolation.30In October 1992 the SLORC formed the Commission for National Convention in order to draft implicit in(p) principles of constitution. These principles underscoring six major pointsSolidarity of the Union for MyanmarSolidarity of the national unityPerpetuation of national sovereigntyDevelopment of parliamentary democracyDevelopment of justice, freedom and equality in t he political arenaThe participation of Tatmadaw in the future states national politics.To determine these basic principles above, the SLORC convoked National Convention for Myanmars new constitution in August 1993.31 The convention assembled less than 15% of the representatives elected in 1990 and the principles which were discussed had to conform to the objectives of the convention, pre-defined by the SLORC. Western States have passed many resolutions to boost the junta to give a timetable for the convention. But so far, there is no clear sign of its come on conclusion, and the NLD, which has left the Convention in 1995 due to undemocratic procedures, has been banned permanently from the convention by the SLORC. The SLORC was formally dissolved on 15 November 1997, reformulating itself as the State Peace and Development Council.322. Recent DevelopmentDuring the last four decades the regime has been effectively functioned under self-imposed isolation in an attempt to revitalise th e hurt economy and avert popular pressure for political reform. To do so the regime operates without any respect of humans basic freedoms and rights. It is in particular the absence of an effective judicial system, and with that the fact that rule of law is not guaranteed by any means, which makes a transition to democracy incessant. The military junta keeps all media under tight control and limits the development of civil society. Torture and extra-judicial executions as well as forced crowd also remain widespread measures in the regimes fight against political opponents and certain ethnic groups. By that, forced village relocations and armed resistance of especially Karen and Shan populations continue to cause internal displacement and a refugee inflow in particular into Thailand.33The lack of good economic governance has led to widespread scantiness among Myanmars population, structural un- and underemployment as well as under-funded health and education systems. Engagement of the international donor community trunk limited due to the countrys political situation. It is also worrying that the junta spends high percentage of its budget for military hardware as opposed to the few resources spend for public health and education. Concerns by the international community are aggravated by the widespread corruption inside the country as well as the uneven distribution of opportunities in urban and rural areas. So far, military rulers have been resisted external demands to wrick over power to a democratic government and it seems that pressure from the international community has been mainly failed. seemingly it could not prevent the junta to seek almost total autonomy, although it seems that the present regime has opened up the country to some extent. However, the regime remains suspicious of and resistant to external criticism and interference.This chapter seeks to present the countrys late(a) development on the economic and political front. It shows Myanm ar from the perspective of the international community. Moreover, it will provide a deeper correspondence in Myanmars economic structure and thus gives a basic background to understand how EU measures equal the country.2.1 Myanmars Recent Economic Development-An AnalysisWith a real Gross Domestic Product (gross domestic product) of 4.0 per cent in 2008, Myanmar is one of the poorest nations in the world.34 Today, Myanmars economy is based on agriculture, gems, timber and oil. Although, the country is rich in natural resources, it has only weak linkages to the global economy. Over the past four decades, deep structural problems caused by the military-inspired policies and the absence of any rational economic and developmental strategies have led to diminishing living standards and widespread poverty among the general population in Myanmar. Political repression and impoverishment have drastically reduced the ability of communities to handle political or social change.35To give an ec onomic overview and analysis of Myanmar, the focus in this section will be on macroeconomic indicators, such as gross domestic product growth, exports and imports, ostentatiousness, investment and interest rates. Economic data, including s on foreign debt and investment are scarce. Data from the states Research Centre are mostly wide or distorted. This can be explained partly through the fact that the SPDC are noted to be using older methods of calculating some key indicators, which are therefore difficult to compare to data used by most other nations today. For instance, the IMF suggests that official s used are significantly overestimated.36GDP suppurationAccording to the IMF, over the period 1997/98-2007/08, GDP growth has remained at an annual average of around 5 per cent, with the exception of 2003/04 when the banking system belatedly to fall out of the Asian Markets Crisis of 1997. The annual growth of 5 per cent would be considered quite healthy in comparison to regional G DP growth, were it not for the rampant inflation in the country, which dramatically undermines any gains made. To clarify, any additional GDP revenues would be swallowed up by the even higher rising costs. The EIU suggests that there has been solid growth in the energy and mining sector as well as significant growth in the service sectors over the last decade.37 This would be more or less encouraging, were those gains not negated by inflation. Evidence supporting this can be found by looking at the continued poor social development indicators and widespread poverty in the country.38A household field conducted by UNDP shows that union-wide 32 per cent of the population lie below the poverty line and 10 per cent below the food poverty (i.e. cannot afford to buy food for basic nutritional requirements). This is also well illustrated by the fact that across the union 34.4 per cent of children under 5 years of age take from moderate malnutrition.39GDP by SectorAbout 70 per cent of ent erprises and firms (small and middle sized businesses) are in private poverty, the remaining 30 per cent (in particular large scaled enterprises) are still owned by the state, which work more often in deficit. The private sector is dominated by business people who are trusted by the government and often employ relatives of senior SPDC members. It has a share more than 90 per cent of the economic performance. However, Myanmars economy is predominantly shaped by agriculture.40 therefore the agricultural sector gains approximately 50 per cent of the countrys GDP. An estimated two thirds of all citizens are working as farmers or labourers. Contrary, the industrial sector including natural gas export segment contributes only 20 per cent of GDP and trade and services 36 per cent.41Myanmars economy was fully regulated by the state, but seemingly the government is taking approaching steps to liberalize agriculture. Though it has ended some production controls and compulsory procedures as well as allowing to grow rice as a dry-season crop in irrigated areas. near of the state owned enterprises which are contributing to the processing and supplying inputs of agriculture have been privatized. Myanmar has been one of the major rice exporters in the world until the government banned exports of rice and some other agricultural products to held domesticated prices down. Only in 2006, the export ban could relax a bit and eased further in 2007.42GDP by Capita and Purchasing PowerAs the chart below clearly shows, Myanmars GDP per capita in 2006 was, by some significant margin, the lowest in the region. This is partly down to the low levels of annual GDP gained by the economy. This could be attributed to numerous factors, such as poor productivity levels, significant trade restrictions and consequent low levels of trade, poor foreign direct investment and poor taxation collection system.According to the aboriginal Intelligence Agency (CIA) and IMF estimates, Myanmar has th e lowest GDP per capita at Purchasing Power Parity (uvulopalatopharyngoplasty) of all neighbouring countries (as shown below). To clarify, PPP is an indicator designed to negate the relative costs of living in the country data and show a comparable income level per person on an equitable basis. Needless to say, the low relative GDP per capita, even at PPP rates shows how low general income levels a